MMG Weekly: Is the Labor Market Showing Signs of Life… or Not?

By Curtis Schartz, CMPS

Oct

11

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: The highly anticipated Jobs Report for September is in. What was the news… and what does it mean for home loan rates?
Forecast for the Week: With the Meeting Minutes from the Fed’s last get together coming – as well as Retail Sales numbers, two inflation reports, and more Third Quarter earnings season ahead, a busy news week is in store!
View: Texting while driving has become a hot issue… but it doesn’t have to worry you anymore. Find out why below.
Last Week in Review

“EVERYBODY’S WORKING FOR THE WEEKEND….” (Loverboy, 1981) Or… are they? Unfortunately, many folks out there these days sure wish they were working at all… and the Labor Department reported last Friday that the US lost 95,000 jobs in September. What else did the Jobs Report say and what could the news mean for home loan rates? Read on for details.
A closer look at the Jobs Report for September shows that 159,000 of the jobs lost were government workers, many of which are the unwinding of the temporary census hires. The more important private sector added 64,000 jobs – but still not great, and also below the 74,000 expected. But this number confirms the thought that the economy, or the Job market, is stabilizing and perhaps even improving, albeit it at a very gradual pace. More on why this is so important in a minute.
The Jobs Report also showed that the Unemployment Rate remained at 9.6%, just below the 9.7% anticipated. However, it’s likely the actual rate of unemployment is higher. Why? Because if an unemployed individual does not seek employment for four weeks, they are removed from the count of the “officially unemployed.” And with unemployment benefits available for about 2 years, it increases an unemployed individual’s chances of becoming less motivated to look for a job, until the benefits are close to running out.
This can skew the headline Unemployment Rate, and is evidenced by the sharp rise in the overall unemployment rate or “U6″ measurement of unemployment, which stands at 17.1%. The U6 rate accounts for these discouraged workers who have not sought employment for the past four weeks, as well as those who have accepted part-time employment but would prefer to be working full-time.
Now, back to the question of why signs of good – or bad – economic news are particularly important of late. The Fed will be watching the various economic reports very closely over the next few weeks in advance of their next regularly scheduled meeting on November 2-3, as they are considering a second round of Quantitative Easing (QE2) to ensure that our slowing economy does not slow even further. If the economic reports that are ahead are more negative than positive, this will increase the likelihood of more QE… but it’s not a foregone conclusion at this point in the least.
So what does all this have to do with home loan rates? If the economic news continues to be soft and the Fed does go through with another round of QE, Bond prices and home loan rates may initially improve for two reasons. First, if the economic data is weak leading up to an announcement – that soft economic news tends to be bad for Stocks, but good for Bonds and therefore home loan rates. Additionally, Bonds would improve simply because the announcement of QE would include large Bond purchases. But keep in mind that the key word is “initially.” Even though Bonds and home loan rates could initially improve, the eventual softening of the Dollar, rising commodity prices, and rise in Stock prices would become a drag on Bonds, which would negatively impact home loan rates.
We’ll see what happens in the coming weeks leading up to the Fed’s next meeting on November 2-3. But last week, meanwhile, the news had a positive impact on Bonds and home loan rates, as they ended the week about .125 to .25 percent better than where they began.
If you or anyone you know would like to learn more about taking advantage of historically low home loan rates, please don’t hesitate to call or email me as soon as possible. Or forward this newsletter on to anyone you think may benefit and I’d be happy to talk to them free of charge.
FINDING IT HARD NOT TO TEXT AND DRIVE? YOU CAN DO IT SAFELY…THANKS TO THIS GREAT NEW APP. CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW FOR DETAILS.
Forecast for the Week

It may be a short week in the Bond Market, with the market closed Monday for the Columbus Day holiday (the Stock Market will be opened), but there will still be plenty of news to work through. On Tuesday, we’ll get a look at the Minutes from the Fed’s September 21st Meeting, and these may give us even more information about which way the Fed is leaning in the QE department.
A double dose of inflation news ends the week, with the Producer Price Index on Thursday (which measures inflation at the wholesale level) and the Consumer Price Index on Friday. Remember, inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan rates, so any hint that inflation is increasing could cause home loan rates to worsen.
Two other reports to note include Thursday’s Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims (last week’s report, while not great, was slightly better than expected) and Friday’s Retail Sales Report. In addition, third quarter earnings season kicks into full gear this week. Some reports to look for include JP Morgan Chase and General Electric, reporting respectively Wednesday and Friday before the markets open.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates hit record levels as the talk of QE2 continued. I’ll be listening closely for the latest developments on that front this week.

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Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday, October 8, 2010)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Safer Driving… There’s an App for That!
A recent study by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration found that distracted driving was the leading cause in 448,000 accidents and 5,474 highway deaths in 2009. That represents a 16% increase from 2008.
That increase is one reason why U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray Lahood has proposed mandatory warnings in automobiles about distracted driving. Lahood, like many parents today, is concerned about the growing increase of technology use in automobiles – including distractions that are being added to new cars that allow “drivers to update Facebook, surf the Web or do any number of other things instead of driving safely,” Lahood said.
Even without such built-in technology, drivers today are often distracted by incoming text messages on their cell phones. The good news is that technology can also help solve this problem. New services – like DriveSafe.ly – have sprung up that eliminate the need to read text messages AND eliminate the need to respond.
Here’s how it works… You download an application to your phone. Then, when you get in your car to drive, you simply turn the application on. When you receive a text message, the application actually reads it to you… automatically… and out loud. So there’s no need to take your eyes off the road.
Better still… the application automatically sends a reply message stating that you are driving and will respond as soon as you reach a destination that allows you to safely reply.
The application can be used on a variety of phones and there are even different plans – including a free version of DriveSafe.ly as well as family and business plans.
If you receive a lot of text messages while driving or if you have a teenager of driving age, this could be one of the most important safety steps you do this year. Take a few minutes to check it out.
After all, this simple application could save your life or the life of someone you know.

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Economic Calendar for the Week of October 11-15, 2010
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of October 11 – October 15
Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Tue. October 12 02:00 FOMC Minutes 9/21 HIGH
Thu. October 14 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 10/9 449K 445K Moderate
Thu. October 14 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Sept 0.2% 0.4% Moderate
Thu. October 14 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Sept 0.1% 0.1% Moderate
Thu. October 14 08:30 Balance of Trade Aug -$44.5B -$42.8B Moderate
Fri. October 15 08:30 Empire State Index Oct 6.0 4.10 Moderate
Fri. October 15 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Sept 0.4% 0.6% HIGH
Fri. October 15 08:30 Retail Sales Sept 0.4% 0.4% HIGH
Fri. October 15 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Sept 0.1% 0.1% HIGH
Fri. October 15 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Sept 0.2% 0.3% HIGH
Fri. October 15 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Oct 68.6 68.2 Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: curtis@kcmortgageplanner.com

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Certified Mortgage Planner, Curtis Schartz, home, Home loan, Interest Rates, kansas city, lees summit, overland park, Pulaski Bank, purchase, Refinance, shawnee

QE or Not QE…That Is The Question

By Curtis Schartz, CMPS

Oct

4

Last Week in Review: The Fed faces a tough decision, but what could it mean for Bonds and home loan rates?
Forecast for the Week: This is a huge week, despite the limited number of reports due out… find out why.
View: Before you plan your next trip or a winter vacation, consider this surprising tip!
Last Week in Review

“I CAN NO LONGER STAND HERE WAITING FOR YOU TO DECIDE…” Those lyrics from the band Chicago’s 1980’s hit sum up the sentiments of many market analysts and traders after last week’s back and forth statements from Fed officials about the possibility of another round of Quantitative Easing… otherwise known as “QE2″.
As we stated last week, many analysts have been feeling that QE2 was very likely, if we continue to see weak economic reports. But comments made by a number of Fed officials throughout the week indicated that QE2 may still be up in the air. For example, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart stated, “there is growing sentiment that further accommodation through large asset purchases is coming… but at this point in time, it’s not a foregone conclusion that we need to go there.” Those comments were followed by other similar comments from other Fed officials, including Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, who doesn’t support any further Bond buying. Additionally, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that monetary stimulus will depend on economic data, while Minnesota Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota says new asset buying would have a more muted impact than prior purchases. This would indicate that at least a few Fed members are hesitant ab out a big QE2 package.
On the flip side, however, New York Fed President William Dudley said on Friday that the Fed is almost certain to lend support through Quantitative Easing in order to ensure that a slowing economy does not fall further. He gave an example of how a $500 Billion purchase plan might impact interest rates, stating that it would have a similar impact to a Fed rate cut of .50 to .75%… and although this was just an example, the fact that he mentioned a specific number was not lost on Traders. Mr. Dudley went on to say that he feels a double dip recession is not an issue, but rather the focus is on how the economy can grow faster than its current pace.
Those comments are important because the markets figured that QE2 would be a lock, unless the Fed sees stronger-than-expected economic data before its November 3rd meeting… specifically, employment data. But last week the analysts and investors were faced with uncertainty around the issue and were left sifting through comments to try to predict what the Fed will do. And that uncertainty caused traders to shift money back out of Bonds at different times last week.
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The Fed and Chairman Bernanke Face a Tough Decision with QE2

But what would another round of Quantitative Easing mean to Bonds and home loan rates?
Let’s break it down into four important aspects: (1) When would it happen? (2) How much money would it involve? (3) Why is this being contemplated? (4) And what does it mean to home loan rates?
First, as stated above, whether QE2 happens will be dependent upon the upcoming data releases. Many experts agree that if the Fed does make a move, it will most likely happen at the next Fed meeting, which is scheduled for November 3rd.
Second, the question of “how much” is still up in the air. As stated above, New York Fed President William Dudley gave an example of a $500 Billion purchase – but estimates are all over the board at this point, from $200 Billion to $2 Trillion. Yet the big question is whether QE2 will even do any good. Recently, former Fed Governor Larry Meyer felt that even $2 Trillion would hardly move the needle on GDP growth or reduce unemployment rates. In fact, he likens it to pushing on a string. Mr. Meyer’s sentiments were also echoed last week by former Fed official Joe Gagnon, who estimated that the Fed is indeed likely to do at least $1 Trillion in additional QE, but that it would have little impact.
That brings us to the third question: Why even contemplate QE2? Think about this: a large round of QE2 would almost assuredly hurt the US Dollar. And by hurting the US Dollar, our exports become more affordable abroad, as well as making imports appear relatively more expensive. This helps large multi-national companies, which have a large influence on the economy, as well as the major Stock market indices. This could be the goal of the Fed. Ahh…but you can’t outright say you are trying to weaken your currency. After all – haven’t many members of Congress and the Administration been bashing China for currency manipulation? The US may be trying to do exactly what it has both denigrated and admonished other nations of doing.
In other words, even if QE2 didn’t have a direct impact on the economy, the drop in currency value – which, if you’ve been paying attention to the Dollar-Euro relationship, has already been happening – would be very beneficial. But at what cost? While Stocks should benefit, Bonds may have a different reaction.
And that brings us to the heart of what you need to know: What would QE2 mean to Bonds and home loan rates?
If the Fed does go through with another round of Quantitative Easing, Bond prices should – initially – improve for two reasons. First, Bonds would likely improve due to the soft economic data causing QE2. Second, Bonds would improve simply because the announcement of QE2 would include large Bond purchases. The key word is “initially.” That’s because, even though Bonds would initially improve, the eventual softening of the Dollar, rising commodity prices, and rise in Stock prices could become a drag on Bonds, which would negatively impact home loan rates.
AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THIS DISCUSSION, THINGS AREN’T ALWAYS WHAT THEY SEEM. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR MANY FINANCIAL MATTERS. TAKE, FOR EXAMPLE, THE COST OF CHECKING YOUR LUGGAGE WHEN YOU FLY. CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW BELOW FOR SOME SURPRISING INFORMATION ON HOW YOU CAN SEND YOUR LUGGAGE FOR LESS!
Forecast for the Week

This week’s economic calendar may be light in terms of the number of reports, but don’t let that fool you for one second. The reports that are due out may have a huge impact not only on the economy this week, but also on decisions that will shape the economy for months to come.
We’ll start off with an update on the health of the housing industry, with the Pending Home Sales report on Monday morning. After that, things start to heat up with the ADP National Employment Index on Wednesday and Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. But the big enchilada comes on Friday, when the all-important Jobs Report will be released. This report includes official labor statistics on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, as well as average hourly earnings and changes in the average work week.
These reports on employment are always important, but they take on even more significance in the current climate. That’s because the question of whether the Fed will move forward with another round of Quantitative Easing as we’ve been discussing, depends heavily on the employment data that is released before the Fed’s upcoming meeting on November 3rd. And since the release of the November Jobs Report on October data is due out November 5th – two days after the Fed meeting – this coming Friday’s report is the last chance for the Fed members to see the official labor statistics before they meet to discuss QE2 and other financial policies.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see from the chart below, Mortgage Bonds experienced some volatility throughout last week. Overall, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week worse than where they began, despite the volatility.
With home loan rates still at historically good levels, homebuyers – and homeowners looking to refinance – still have a tremendous opportunity. But it won’t last forever… which means now is a good time to act.

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Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday, October 1, 2010)
In This Issue

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Save Money by Shipping Your Luggage
You may spend less by using a shipping company – rather than the airlines – to get your bags to your destination.
By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com
You may be able to save money by shipping your luggage rather than checking it in the next time you fly. The idea might sound absurd. But if you do the math – as Airfarewatchdog.com has done for you in this chart – you’ll see that it would cost you less in some cases to send your bags to your destination by FedEx, UPS or U.S. Postal Service ground shipping.
Passengers who have luggage that exceeds airlines’ size and weight limits will score the biggest savings. They’ll spend about $50 less by shipping one overweight suitcase than checking it in – and up to $200 by shipping two overweight bags.
Even if the cost is the same for shipping and checking bags, you get so much more from FedEx and UPS, says Airfarewatchdog.com founder George Hobica, who ships his luggage. They have better delivery records than the airlines, they provide tracking numbers so you can follow your shipment online and they let you insure items that the airlines don’t, he says. Plus, you’re more likely to get a refund from a shipping company than an airline if your luggage is damaged or lost.
Another benefit: You won’t have to wait in long lines at the airport to check your bags. And if you have small children, you’ll be a lot less stressed if you don’t have to lug your kids and luggage from the parking lot to the terminal.
The key is to ship your luggage a few days BEFORE your flight so that it arrives at your destination when you do. If you’re visiting a relative, the shipping logistics are easy. But if you’re going to be staying in a hotel or condo, you should consider having the shipping company hold your items so you can pick them up. Otherwise, you might have to pay a fee to have the hotel or rental office hold your luggage until you arrive.
Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2010 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. www.kiplinger.com.

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Economic Calendar for the Week of October 4-8, 2010
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of October 04 – October 08
Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Mon. October 04 10:00 Pending Home Sales Aug 1.0% 5.2% Moderate
Tue. October 05 08:15 ISM Services Index Sept 51.8 51.5 Moderate
Wed. October 06 08:15 ADP National Employment Report Sept 18K -10K HIGH
Thu. October 07 01:00 Jobless Claims (Initial) 10/02 455K 453K Moderate
Fri. October 08 08:30 Non-farm Payrolls Sept 0 -54K HIGH
Fri. October 08 08:30 Unemployment Rate Sept 9.7% 9.6% HIGH
Fri. October 08 08:30 Hourly Earnings Sept 0.1% 0.3% HIGH
Fri. October 08 08:30 Average Work Week Sept 34.2 34.2 HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: curtis@kcmortgageplanner.com

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Certified Mortgage Planner, Curtis Schartz, home, Home loan, Interest Rates, kansas city, lees summit, overland park, Pulaski Bank, purchase, Refinance, shawnee

The Fed is Talking, But Will They Act?

By Curtis Schartz, CMPS

Jun

17

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Fed members did a lot of talking…find out what they’re saying and what it means for home loan rates.
Forecast for the Week: Inflation, housing, and manufacturing reports are ahead. Plus, will the Euro show signs of stabilization?
View: Travel safely with these tips from Kiplinger.com on avoiding travel scams.

Last Week in Review

“ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS,” or so the popular saying goes. But the words from various Fed members on the actions they feel need to be taken are getting pretty loud. And what could all this potential action mean for home loan rates? Read on to learn more.
There has been growing debate among Fed members about when to begin raising the Fed Funds Rate. What is the Fed Funds Rate? It’s the lending rate banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds, and it is used as a base rate that many other lending rates are based on, for consumer and business loans. A higher Fed Funds Rate tends to slow economic activity, as it means the cost of borrowing to finance a purchase will be higher, while a lower rate helps to stimulate activity, a ripple effect that expands into all sectors of the economy. As you can see in the chart below, the Fed Funds Rate is currently at a range of 0.0-0.25%, and it has been this low for over a year to help stimulate our economy and move us from recession to recovery.
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Fed Funds Rate

If the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate too soon, it could slow economic activity and cause a “double dip” recession. However, if the Fed waits too long to raise the Fed Funds Rate, inflation could result…and inflation concerns were a big reason for all the Fed chatter last week. Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates.
With mounting debt in the US and concerns that US debt will overtake GDP by 2012 – as well as the problems in Europe – there are many factors the Fed needs to consider before taking action. For instance, last week Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the Unemployment Rate is likely to remain high for a while and he noted that the Fed “can’t wait until unemployment is where we’d like it to be” before tightening credit, or inflation could too easily get out of control. That said, recent reports like May’s Jobs Report and Retail Sales Report – which showed the first monthly decline since September 2009 – indicate that our economic recovery is still fragile at the moment. This means the Fed won’t want to act too quickly, either.
The next Fed Meeting is June 22-23rd, and while the Fed will most likely not raise the Fed Funds Rate at this time, more and more Fed members are expressing concerns about the current very accommodative monetary policy in place. Although home loan rates are not tied to the Fed Funds Rate, I’ll be watching this situation very carefully as it continues to unfold.
In addition, Bonds and home loan rates have benefitted lately from the situation in Europe, as global investors have sought the safe haven of our US Bonds. However, as the Euro’s freefall is finally showing some signs of stabilization, traders and investors can be very fickle in unwinding or reversing these trades pretty quickly. This could reverse the improvement we’ve seen in home loan rates, and we saw a sign of that last week. Bonds and home loan rates ended the week a bit off their best levels of the week…but are still incredibly low overall.
If you or anyone you know would like to take advantage of the exceptional opportunity that exists in the home loan marketplace at this point in history, please don’t hesitate to call or email. Or forward this newsletter on to anyone you think may benefit as well!
PLANNING A VACATION IS AN ACTION MANY OF US TAKE DURING THE SUMMER. CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW BELOW FOR TIPS FROM KIPLINGER FOR AVOIDING TRAVEL SCAMS.
Forecast for the Week

There will be plenty of inflation news for the Fed to gather this week, ahead of its meeting later this month. First, there’s Wednesday’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level, which will be followed by Thursday’s Consumer Price Index. As mentioned above, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, so it will be important to see what these reports reveal.
Housing, manufacturing, and job news are also in store this week, with Wednesday’s Housing Starts and Building Permits Reports (which give us an update on the health of the new construction sector of the housing market) and Thursday’s Philadelphia Fed Report (which gives us an update on the manufacturing sector).
We’ll also have another weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. Initial Jobless Claims numbers have remained stubbornly high. The most troubling numbers in last week’s report are the additional 5.13M people claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation), which are benefits lasting longer than 26 weeks, up to 99 weeks in total.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates have rallied in the last few months, helped by the uncertainties in Europe. But remember, traders are fickle, and stabilization in Europe could bring an end to this rally. I’ll be watching closely to see what happens this week.
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The Mortgage Market View

Six Travel Scams to Avoid
All of these deals are too good to be true.
By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com
The summer travel season is almost here. If you’re looking for deals, make sure you don’t become the victim of a scam when trying to score a bargain. I spoke with SmarterTravel.com contributing editor Ed Perkins to find out which scams are most common and what you can do to avoid them. Here’s his list:
1. Phony airline tickets
How it works: A Web site or travel agency offers a deal better than anyone else’s, won’t accept credit cards and instead demands direct transfer of funds. What you get is a plane ticket that’s worthless.
How you can avoid this scam: Don’t deal with an outfit you’ve never heard of. See our list of the 28 best travel sites for legitimate companies. Don’t purchase airline tickets or any travel accommodations through a group that won’t accept a credit card. If you have a dispute with a merchant — for example, you were sold a phony plane ticket — you may have an easier time working out a solution if you paid with a credit card.
2. Pay now for future travel
How it works: You’re approached to enroll in a club that will enable you to take future vacations for an upfront fee of thousands to tens of thousands of dollars. After enrolling, you try to book a vacation but are told that the location or time period you want is unavailable. Then you might be asked for more money to gain access to more upscale spots that would be available.
How to avoid this scam: Unless you know someone who participates in a particular program and is happy with the service, stay away from these clubs. Even if your friend recommends a club, do some research of your own. See Resources to Help You Check Out a Company.
3. Travel like a travel agent
How it works: You receive a promotion in the mail or e-mail telling you that you can travel like a travel agent or sell travel from your home. The group purports to be a large travel agency that will provide back-office support while you sell travel packages. For a fee (usually $495 or $4,900), you’ll receive training and a travel agent ID card that you can use when making reservations to get a special rate.
How to avoid this scam: “There’s hardly an airline or hotel that doesn’t know about these phony IDs,” Perkins says. Even legitimate travel agents have a tough time getting discounts on airfare. Toss the promotion in the trash or hit “delete.”
4. No-ticket event packages
How it works: A tour operator offers a package for a big event, such as the Super Bowl, but doesn’t actually have tickets to the event.
How to avoid this scam: Ask the tour operator if it has event tickets in hand. Of course, the representative could lie. So it’s best to buy through an organization you know.
5. Phony insurance
How it works: A travel agent sells you a “protection plan” that’s supposed to reimburse you if you have to cancel your trip. The policy, however, is unlicensed and you won’t get your money back.
How to avoid this scam: Make sure the product you’re being sold really is a licensed insurance policy. You can see a list of licensed travel insurance companies at the U.S. Travel Insurance Association site. See The Case for Travel Insurance to learn more about what travel insurance covers. You can compare policies at InsureMyTrip.com.
6. “We will sell your timeshare”
How it works: Groups charge an upfront fee to sell your unwanted timeshare. “The bottom line is they don’t,” Perkins says.
How to avoid this scam: Avoid any group that promises to sell your timeshare for a fee (other than cheap listing fee). If you have a timeshare you just can’t unload, consider posting on Craigslist with an offer to give away your timeshare for free to anyone who will take over the commitment.
Reprinted with permission. All Contents © 2010 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. www.kiplinger.com.
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Economic Calendar for the Week of June 14 – June 18
Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Tue. June 15 08:30 Empire State Index Jun 20.0 19.11 Moderate
Wed. June 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 6/12 NA -1.83M Moderate
Wed. June 16 09:15 Industrial Production May 0.7% 0.8% Moderate
Wed. June 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization May 74.2% 73.7% Moderate
Wed. June 16 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) May -0.4% -0.1% Moderate
Wed. June 16 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) May 0.1% 0.2% Moderate
Wed. June 16 08:30 Building Permits May 655K 610K Moderate
Wed. June 16 08:00 Housing Starts May 655K 672K Moderate
Thu. June 17 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 6/12 NA 431K Moderate
Thu. June 17 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) May -0.1% -0.1% HIGH
Thu. June 17 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) May 0.1% 0.0% HIGH
Thu. June 17 10:00 Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI) May 0.4% -0.1% Low
Thu. June 17 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Index Jun 17.0 21.4 HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

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Curtis Schartz, Certified Mortgage Planner, Pulaski Bank Home Lending, Overland Park, Kansas City, Lee’s Summit, Olathe, Leawood, Lenexa, Independence, Liberty, Parkville, Gladstone, Shawnee.

Rates are Improving

By Curtis Schartz, CMPS

Sep

1

Interest rates for Johnson County, Jackson County and the surrounding Kansas City metro area are improving today. Mortgage Backed Securities have been fighting a tough triple layer of resistance the last couple of days. If they are able to break through the resistance we could see lower rates in the near future. If Mortgage Backed Securities are turned away once again from this tough layer of resistance we will see rates go up again. September is notorious for being a poor month for the stock market. If the market continues to falter like it is right now we could see a convincing break above the current resistance and see lower interest rates. The door usually doesn’t stay open very long when the opportunity arises to lock in for a low interest rate. The best strategy at this point is to have everything ready to go and lock in at the first sign that the market starts to turn for the worst. Call Curtis Schartz at Pulaski Bank Home Loans to get your Mortgage Plan in place so you are prepared to save the most amount of money on a No Cost Refinance.

Your Certified Mortgage Planner for Life – Curtis Schartz

Rate Direction

By Curtis Schartz, CMPS

Aug

26

Interest Rates in Overland Park and Lees Summit have been improving over the last week. The Bond auctions are going farely well thus far this week. However Mortgage Backed Securities are up against a tough layer of resistance. This could keep rates from moving much lower in the  near term. If you haven’t refinanced yet now is an opportune time to get locked in on a no cost refinance and take advantage of these low rates. Contact Curtis Schartz your Certified Mortgage Planner to find out about refinancing your home.

The Rally Coninues

By Curtis Schartz, CMPS

Aug

14

Lower interest Rates for the Kansas City, Overland Park, Shawnee and Lees Summit Market Continue. Mortgage Backed Securities rallied again today to test resistance at the 200 day moving average. By the end of the day Mortgage Backed securities were pushed back lower, yet ended the day in the positive. Rates have improved over the last week by approximately .25%. We are in a target zone for many people who have not refinanced yet to be able to take advantage of low rates. Call Curtis Schartz your Certified Mortgage Planner today to save the most on a no cost refinance. ARM rates continue to stay consistently lower. Some rates are in the 4.25% range. Call me to see if this fits into your Mortgage Plan.

Auction Results are in.

By Curtis Schartz, CMPS

Aug

13

Today’s interest rates for the Kansas City and Lees Summit Market are moving lower. There was a strong foreign participation in today’s 30 yr bond auction. With the well received auction Mortgage Backed Securities have rallied back today. Currently we have a floating bias as the Mortgage Backed Securities test resistance at the 25 day moving average. All in all this is good news for marginally lower rates. With all of the auctions over for the next couple of weeks we could see rates move a little lower. Stay tuned in this volatile market. The tide can change quickly. As your Certified Mortgage Planner with Pulaski Bank I will keep a watch on it for you.

Thanks – Curtis Schartz

Market Volatility today

By Curtis Schartz, CMPS

Aug

5

As your Certified Mortgage Planner in Lees Summit and Overland Park I am here to help guide you through the turbulent Mortgage Market and help you to get the best interest rate. Today Mortgage Backed Securities are moving with great volatility. They have already traded in an 82 basis point range. Current direction for rates is lower attempting to stabilize. Today the ADP employment report missed the mark to the low side fueling the volatility and helping bonds to rebound from the lows of the day. Additionally the ISM services index also came in worse then expected helping to support an improvement in bonds. The economy and job scene is not out of the woods yet. Poor economic news will cause the bonds markets to rise which leads to lower interest rates. The opposite is also true – positive economic news will cause bonds to fall and lead to higher interest rates.