Oct

27

Click Here for My Featured Chart.

Curtis Schartz, Certified Mortgage Planner, Pulaski Bank HARP Refinance, Lees Summit, Overland Park, Kansas City, Leawood, Lenexa, Olathe, Shawnee, Liberty

Oct

25

In This Issue

  

 

 

Last Week in Review:The Fed made headlines, plus inflation is heating up!Forecast for the Week: Some key reports on housing, plus the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation and news from Europe could move the markets.

View: Ever feel like you ramble when you leave voicemails? Check out these tips for surefire ways to leave effective messages.

 

Last Week in Review

 

 

 

When the Fed talks, people listen.And last week, the Fed made headlines when Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo called for the Fed to engage in another round of Mortgage Bond purchases…or in other words, another round of Quantitative Easing (QE3). Read on to find out what this could mean for the housing market and home loan rates.In order to really have an impact on housing, the Fed would have to announce something significant to get people to buy a home. Why? Because even now, with rates at historically low levels and incredible affordability levels, the sales pace in housing is tepid, due to structural problems in the labor market, which the Fed can’t fix. 

In fact, there is a lot to consider before the Fed starts expanding their balance sheet, and the biggest concern is rising inflation. Contrary to what the Fed has said about it moderating, year-over-year inflation is on the rise. The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by a whopping 0.8% in the month of September, elevating year-over-year wholesale prices by a hot 6.9%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 0.3%, and while this was inline with estimates it pushed the year-over-year number to 3.9%. This is significant because the year-over-year figure was just 1.6% in January.

Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates. The concept is very simple: If inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher.

And let’s not forget the ongoing drama out of Europe. French and German leaders will hold two summits in the span of four days to come up with a resolution to the European debt crisis. Whichever way this news goes could have a real effect on the markets, including Bonds and home loan rates. 

With all the news to come this week, it’s still important to remember that now remains a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates are still near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

 

Forecast for the Week

 

 

 

Look for some key reports on the housing market, which come after last week’s better-than-expected Housing Starts and the softer numbers from Existing Home Sales.

  • New Home Sales are set to be delivered on Wednesday. That number has been hovering near record lows, so the markets will be anxious to see if there’s any indication of an improvement. Also this week, Pending Home Sales will be released Thursday.
  • Also on Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims will be released as usual. Plus, the first reading on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 3rd quarter will be released. Overall, the estimates don’t appear as if the economy is hitting on all cylinders yet.
  • The markets will see how the American people are holding up in this economy with Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. 
  • Ending the week, Friday’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s favored inflation measure, is sure to garner some attention.

In addition to those reports, keep an eye on the news. One story that could gain some attention is news that the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and the Obama administration will submit proposals to Congress to help the housing market for those homeowners who are underwater.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates stayed in a tight range last week. I’ll be watching closely to see how the markets react to Fed Governor Tarullo’s call for QE3, the news out of Europe, and the economic reports of the week.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 21, 2011)

 

 

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

 

 

 

Don’t Say Another Word!5 Secrets to Leaving More Effective Voice Messages

People are busy. That means, even with the wide variety of technical products developed to keep us in touch, it’s sometimes hard to get a hold of people. In those instances, we find ourselves transported back to the tried-and-true technology of the 1980s—that is, leaving a message after the beep.

Same Old, Same Old

While the technology has changed from tapes to megabytes, the basic concept of a voice message remains the same. You talk; it records; people listen.

Sadly, that’s not the only thing that’s the same. Many people still don’t know how to leave a message that provides information but also establishes a compelling reason for the listener to call back.

Use These Tips Today!

The following tips can help you be more effective and get better results with voice messages:

1. Don’t Talk So Much. You have a limited window to make your point. That means you can’t provide a lot of background information or cover multiple topics.

Before you call, make sure you have a singular focus to mention if you get the person’s voicemail. Then, highlight that important point, and leave the rest of your points for the actual follow-up discussion.

2. Focus on a Problem. To put it bluntly: People don’t want to hear about you; they want to hear about themselves.

So before you call, make sure you’ve thought about the person on the other end—including what she cares about, what she spends her time on, as well as what she wishes she could spend her time on instead. You could even try to imagine why she was busy and couldn’t answer the phone. Or imagine where she’s about to rush off to as soon as your message ends.

Based on those ideas, craft a simple, focused message that hits on ONE major problem or issue that the listener has.

3. Everyone Likes a Good Mystery. Once you’ve focused on a single overriding problem, resist the temptation to go into your sales pitch about solving it. For one thing, the listener probably doesn’t have time (or want) to listen to your pitch. For another, if you give your pitch, what reason do they have to call you back?

Instead, only allude to the idea that a solution does exist…but don’t go into detail. Leave some mystery. That’s your hook for getting them to actually call you back…because now they actually have a reason to!

Finally, state a number the person can reach you at and say you’d like to tell/give them some information by chatting for a couple of minutes. You can even give them a time frame (such as saying they can call you back by a certain day or time) to help create a sense of urgency about solving the mystery you’ve established in your message.

4. Energy and Enthusiasm. Nobody wants to listen to a person who’s boring or sounds bored.

The same is true with voice messages. After all, if you don’t have energy when talking about something, why should the listener have the energy to call you back?

So before you call, take a second to raise your energy level. Some experts recommend standing up when making a call or smiling while talking on the phone, as a way to subtly convey a pleasant, energetic tone.

5. Phone Home. It’s not enough to practice in your head. It’s not even enough to practice out loud. You need to actually leave some practice messages.

So here’s what you do: call your home phone and leave some test messages. You can even try a few different approaches. When you get home, take notes about what worked and what you want to improve. Then, try the same process the next day or even every couple of months to make sure you’re still effective.

Remember: If you don’t want to listen to yourself or don’t feel compelled to call back, then why would anyone else?

By following these tips and constantly working to improve your voice message skills, you can help increase your productivity and the number of responses you receive.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 24 – October 28

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Tue. October 25

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Oct

46.0

 

45.4

Moderate

Wed. October 26

08:30

Durable Goods Orders

Sept

-1.0%

 

-0.1%

Moderate

Wed. October 26

10:00

New Home Sales

Sept

300K

 

295K

Moderate

Thu. October 27

08:30

Pending Home Sales

Aug

-1.0%

 

-1.2%

Moderate

Thu. October 27

08:30

GDP Chain Deflator

Q3

2.5%

 

2.5%

Moderate

Thu. October 27

08:30

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Q3

2.2%

 

1.3%

Moderate

Thu. October 27

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

10/22

403K

 

403K

Moderate

Fri. October 28

08:30

Personal Income

Sept

0.3%

 

-0.1%

Moderate

Fri. October 28

08:30

Personal Spending

Sept

0.6%

 

0.2%

Moderate

Fri. October 28

08:30

Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE

Sept

0.1%

 

0.1%

HIGH

Fri. October 28

08:30

Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE

YOY

NA

 

1.6%

HIGH

Fri. October 28

08:30

Employment Cost Index (ECI)

Q3

0.6%

 

0.7%

HIGH

Fri. October 28

10:00

Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)

Oct

57.5

 

57.5

Moderate

 

 The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors. 

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: curtis@kcmortgageplanner.com 

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

 

          

Certified Mortgage Planner, Curtis Schartz, Home loan, Interest Rate, Interest Rates, kansas city, lees summit, lower interest, lower rates, Mortgage, mortgage backed securities, no cost refinance, overland park, Pulaski Bank, purchase, rate, Rates, Refinance, shawnee, HARP

Oct

25

Click Here for My Featured Chart.

 

Curtis Schartz, Certified Mortgage Planner, Pulaski Bank HARP Refinance, Lees Summit, Overland Park, Kansas City, Leawood, Lenexa, Olathe, Shawnee, Liberty

Oct

25

FHFA mortgage refi boost expected to be modest.

 

Curtis Schartz, Certified Mortgage Planner, Pulaski Bank HARP Refinance, Lees Summit, Overland Park, Kansas City, Leawood, Lenexa, Olathe, Shawnee, Liberty

Oct

19

Click Here for My Featured Chart.

New Home Starts for September are the highest pace in 17 months!

Oct

18

 

In This Issue

 

 

 

Last Week in Review:Good news at home and abroad impacted the markets and home loan rates last week. Find out how.Forecast for the Week: Earnings season is in full swing, plus look for big news on manufacturing, housing, and inflation.

View: Wondering about the outlook for the housing and mortgage markets in 2012? Be sure to read the article below.

 

Last Week in Review

 

 

 

“It’s a small world after all.”And that proved especially true last week, as our markets were impacted by news at home and news from overseas. Here are the highlights.First, there was some good news on the economic front in the U.S. as Retail Sales for September rose by 1.1%, above the 0.6% expected and the highest increase in seven months. Remember good economic news typically benefits Stocks at the expense of Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied), as investors move their money from the safety of Bonds into Stocks to try and take advantage of gains.

And good news here wasn’t the only thing that pressured Bonds and home loan rates last week. The European Central Bank (ECB) said they will announce a plan by early November for addressing the Greek debt crisis and make recapitalizing their banks a priority. As part of this plan, the International Monetary Fund is going to dedicate more resources to help the European debt crisis. A lot of money is needed to make investors feel confident that the debt crisis will be contained, so investors saw this as positive news.

So what does this mean for Bonds and home loan rates? Should the overall present optimistic tone continue, Bonds and home loan rates could face additional pressure. However, if there is pessimistic or uncertain news, investors may return to the safe haven of Bonds, meaning home loan rates could benefit. We did see a little of this trend last week when there was word that China’s exports came in lower than expectations, which brought concern that global growth could continue to slow.
Either way, the volatility is sure to continue so the most important thing to remember is that now is still a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

 

Forecast for the Week

 

 

 

Manufacturing, inflation, and housing reports dominate the news this week:

  • The manufacturing sector accounts for one-quarter of the economy, so it’s especially important during the current economic situation. This week, the New York State Empire Manufacturing Index as well as Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will be released on Monday. Later in the week, the Philadelphia Fed Index will be reported on Thursday.
  • Inflation news from the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be delivered on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. The last report on consumer inflation was a bit hotter than expected, so Bond market players will be closely watching those reports.  
  • Housing Starts will be reported on Wednesday and on Thursday Existing Home Sales will be delivered. 
  • The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be released on Thursday. As of last week’s report, they continue to remain above the 400,000 level.   

Plus, earnings season is in full swing this week. Some big names reporting earnings are Citigroup, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, Apple, and AT&T. If the reports come in better than expected, it could push investing dollars over to the Equity markets.  

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates faced pressure last week but remained above a key technical level. I’ll be watching the markets closely this week to see what happens.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 14, 2011)

 

 

 

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

 

 

 

The Housing and Mortgage Markets in 2012Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its outlook for the housing and mortgage markets in 2012. Overall, the news is mixed, but there’s some good news to glean out of it. Here are three positive elements in the MBA forecast that you should know about:

1. Home Sales Steady Before Slight Increase

The MBA expects total existing home sales will stay around the 4.9 million unit pace for 2011 and 2012. But in 2013, the MBA expects home sales to increase slightly to 5.2 million units, as the broader economy recovers.

New home sales are expected to be similar to the overall trend. As the MBA stated in its release: “The recovery in the new home sales will have a comparably slow start…but will show some meaningful increases in 2013.”

2. Slight Growth in Home Purchases

Despite an expected decrease in refinances, the MBA forecasts some slight growth in the number of mortgages for home purchases. Specifically, the MBA anticipates home loans for purchases to increase to $412 Billion in 2012, which would be up from the anticipated 2011 total of $400 Billion.

Better still, the MBA expects home loans for purchases to jump significantly to $700 Billion in 2013 as the economy, home sales, and home prices are all anticipated to pick up. 

3. Rates to Remain Low

Overall, fixed home loan rates are expected to remain low by historical standards. The MBA expects rates to end 2011 around a 4.5 percent average, and then possibly dropping slightly to 4.4 percent at some point in 2012. But by 2013, the MBA expects rates to climb back up to 4.9 percent – which is still low by historical standards but does indicate a change in direction.

As always, forecasts can change based on numerous factors not just in the U.S., but also in the global markets. And while the MBA forecast does contain some negative aspects for the markets, it does hold some slightly positive aspects as well.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 17 – October 21

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Mon. October 17

08:30

Empire State Index

Oct

NA

 

-8.82

Moderate

Mon. October 17

09:15

Industrial Production

Sept

NA

 

0.2%

Moderate

Mon. October 17

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Sept

NA

 

77.4%

Moderate

Tue. October 18

08:30

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Sept

NA

 

0.0%

Moderate

Tue. October 18

08:30

Core Producer Price Index (PPI)

Sept

NA

 

0.1%

Moderate

Wed. October 19

02:00

Beige Book

 

 

 

 

Moderate

Wed. October 19

08:30

Building Permits

Sept

NA

 

620K

Moderate

Wed. October 19

08:30

Housing Starts

Sept

NA

 

571K

Moderate

Wed. October 19

08:30

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Sept

NA

 

0.2%

HIGH

Wed. October 19

08:30

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Sept

NA

 

0.4%

HIGH

Thu. October 20

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

10/15

NA

 

NA

Moderate

Thu. October 20

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Sept

NA

 

5.03M

Moderate

Thu. October 20

10:00

Philadelphia Fed Index

Oct

NA

 

-17.5

HIGH

Thu. October 20

10:00

Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI)

Sept

NA

 

0.3%

Low

 

 The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

 

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

 

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: curtis@kcmortgageplanner.com

 

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

 

 

 

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

 

          

Certified Mortgage Planner, Curtis Schartz, Home loan, Interest Rate, Interest Rates, kansas city, lees summit, lower interest, lower rates, Mortgage, mortgage backed securities, no cost refinance, overland park, Pulaski Bank, purchase, rate, Rates, Refinance, shawnee