Forecast for the Week:The second half of the week heats up with news on the housing market and the state of the economy. Plus, the Fed meets.

View: A fee increase is coming that will impact home loan rates. Be sure to read the details below.

It’s almost all Greek to me. Last week, more news from Greece hit the wires, as did several pieces of inflation news here at home. Read on to learn what happened, and what the impact was on home loan rates. First, it’s important to remember that back in October, a deal called for Bondholders to “accept” a 50% haircut on the face value of the Greek debt. Last week, rumors about this amount were swirling, saying that Greece is close to a deal that would entail a 68% haircut on the face value of their debt. And if that’s not concern enough, a larger issue remains.

After the proposed austerity measures, wage cuts, and tax increases are instituted, will Greece – not to mention Italy, Portugal, and other struggling economies – be able to “grow” their way out of debt? Given that the World Bank lowered its 2012 global growth forecast to 2.5% from last summer’s estimate of 3.6%, the odds sure seem tough. This is an important story to watch as the year unfolds.

Here at home, inflation was in the news twice last week…and the results were mixed. On Wednesday, the wholesale inflation measuring Core Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hot, elevating the year-over-year Core PPI rate to a lofty 3%…the highest since April 2009. Meanwhile, Thursday’s Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was inline with expectations and tame overall, though it is worth noting that the 2.2% Core CPI year-over-year reading is near the upper end of the Fed’s tolerance level.

Remember, inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan rates, like Kryptonite to Superman. That’s because inflation erodes the value of the fixed return provided by a Bond, which causes home loan rates to rise. It will be interesting to see what – if anything – the Fed says about inflation after it’s regularly scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee this week…as any talk or sign of inflation can move the markets and impact rates.

Even with all the news last week, it’s still a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

• We’ll see a double dose of housing news with Pending Home Sales on Wednesday and New Home Saleson Thursday.
• As usual, Initial Jobless Claimswill be released on Thursday. Last week’s read came in at 352,000, a drop of 50,000. That’s the biggest decline since September 2005!
• We’ll also see two important reports that will show us how the economy is doing. Thursday brings the Durable Goods Report, which gives us a read on big ticket items. This will be followed by the first reading on Gross Domestic Product(GDP) for the Fourth Quarter of 2011 on Friday.
• Finally, Consumer Sentiment will also be released on Friday.

In addition to those reports, the Federal Open Market Committee will hold a two-day meeting this week. The meeting will begin January 24 and end with a policy statement at 12:30 pm ET on January 25. There is no chance of a rate hike, but I will be listening for any hint of a third round of Quantitative Easing (QE3).

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, some encouraging economic and company earnings news last week helped halt the improving trend Bonds had been seeing. I’ll continue to monitor this situation.

In December 2011, Congress reached a last-minute deal to fund the payroll tax cut extension. The payroll tax extension will provide a 2% tax reduction for individuals making up to $106,800, so the tax extension will be very helpful for many Americans who are struggling during these tough economic times. But like so many things in our tangled economy, there’s a flip side. In this case, the tax cut deal has a rippling effect that will impact the mortgage world.

Here’s what’s happening and what it means to home loan rates:

What is happening and why? To put it bluntly, the passage of the payroll tax cut extension is being funded via a mandate to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the nation’s largest providers of mortgage money) to increase their guarantee fees or “g-fee’s” by at least 10 basis points on the rate. So rather than giving a par rate of 4.00%, for example, the par rate is now increased by at least 10 basis points, or approximately 4.10%. But as you probably knowhome loan rates are priced and offered in .125% increments, so this will most likely impact the consumer by .125% in rate. Whether you agree or not on the politics behind this cost being passed along to folks who are taking out mortgages, the Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that the increase will ultimately pay for about $35.7 Billion of the cost of the payroll tax extension.

What exactly is this “g-fee”? The guarantee fee or “g-fee” is an amount charged by mortgage-backed securities (MBS) providers, like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, to help protect against credit-related losses in the overall mortgage portfolio. In other words, it acts a lot like insurance and helps lower the overall riskwhich means home loans can be offered at terrific interest rates to borrowers that have good – but not perfect – credit.

What exactly is the impact of the rate increase? For example, for a $200,000 home loan, the increased g-fee (assuming a .125% increase in rate) would equate to $250 more per year in interest, or $7,500 more over 30 years. Someone buying or refinancing a home can certainly choose to buy down the cost with cash up front – but most folks will not do this.

Who will this impact? The change will impact all new borrowers of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans. The bill will also impact Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans by increasing the annual mortgage insurance premium that borrowers pay by one-tenth of a percent.

When will it start? Officially, the increase to guarantee fees will begin on April 1, 2012. However, the increase is already starting to be seen in rate sheets right now, since home loans being originated now will likely not be closed, pooled and securitized until Apriland therefore will need the increased g-fee priced in earlier.

How long will this be in effect? The increase will be effective through October 1, 2021.

The bottom line is that the g-fees will be going upand this will impact homebuyers looking to obtain a home loan through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA.

The good news is that home loan rates are still at historic lows right now, and it’s a great time to purchase a new home or refinance. If you or anyone you know has any questions, please call or email!

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 23 – January 27

View: Wondering what the housing trends for 2012 will be? Check out 11 trends we saw in 2011.

There was good news last Friday, as the first look at Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 74.0, which is the highest level since May 2011. However, there was also news last week that the holiday shopping season may not have been as robust as previously thought.

The news out of Europe last week also wasn’t too happy. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde met to discuss and finalize the debt restructuring deal for Greece. Back in October, a deal called for Bondholders to “accept” a 50% haircut on the face value of the Greek debt – but as creditors and authorities have started to forge a final deal, the actual haircut back to investors is looking quite likely to be larger than 50%. This is simply because worsening financial conditions in the Greek economy make paying the debt back with “just” a 50% haircut highly unlikely…maybe impossible. What’s more, the next reasonable question to consider is will Ireland, Portugal and even Italy ask for a similar haircut or deal on what may be unsustainable debt in their countries?

The happy news is that these problems are finally being addressed to make things better in the future. And in the short term, the uncertainty should keep money flowing into the relative safe haven of the US Dollar and US Bonds – including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied. In addition, Mortgage Bonds continue to be supported by the Fed’s purchases, which are also helping to keep home loan rates at record low levels.

All of this means that now continues to remain a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

• Manufacturing strong? The week’s economic data kicks off on Tuesday with a manufacturing indicator from New York’s Empire State Index for January. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed Indexfor January will be released on Thursday. Last month, both reports reached their highest levels in months. Remember: The Stock Market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. However, the Bond market prefers a moderate growth environment that won’t generate inflationary pressures.
• Speaking of inflation We’ll see inflation reports on the wholesale level in the Producer Price Index on Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Indexon Thursday. Inflation has remained tameand Bondholders will be closely watching these two indicators for any signs of an uptick.
• Back on track this week? Initial Jobless Claimswill be released as usual on Thursday. Last week’s number showed an uptick in claims and broke the recent trend of decreasing claims. However, the rise could have been due in part to layoffs of seasonal holiday workers. So the markets will be watching to see if this report gets back on track with the recent positive trend.
• No place like home! Housing data in the form of Housing Starts, Building Permits and Existing Home Sales will all be reported this week. Housing continues to troll around low levels despite record low home loan rates.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates are continuing their improving trend. I’ll be watching this closely as we head further into the new year.

1. In 2011, 37% of homebuyers were first-time buyers – which was down from 50% in 2010.

2. Last year, 88% of homebuyers used the Internet to search for a home. That number was down slightly from a high of 90% in 2009.

3. The typical homebuyer searched for 12 weeks and viewed 12 homes.

4. The number of buyers who purchased their home through a real estate agent or broker climbed to 89% – a share that has steadily increased from 69% in 2001.

5. Nearly 1 out of 4 buyers said the application and approval process was “somewhat more difficult” than expectedand 16% reported it was “much more difficult” than expected.

6. About half of home sellers traded up to a larger and more expensive homeand 60% traded up to a new home.

7. The top 3 factors influencing neighborhood choice were: the quality of the neighborhood, the convenience to job, and the overall affordability of homes.

8. The typical seller lived in their home for 9 years. That number has increased from 6 years in 2007.

9. Although 61% of sellers said they reduced their asking price at least once, the average home sold for 95% of the listing price.

10. Only 10% of sellers sold their homes without the assistance of a real estate agent. Of those people, 40% knew the buyer prior to the sale.

11. The typical “for sale by owner” home sold for $150,000 compared to $215,000 for the average agent-assisted home sale.

All Contents 2012 The National Association of Realtors.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 16 – January 20

View: Are you “resolved” to keep your New Year’s Resolutions this year? The tips below will help!

The Stock and Bond Markets were closed on Monday in observance of the Christmas holiday, and it was a fairly quiet week after that. However, there was some good news, as Consumer Confidence came in at 64.5 for December. Not only was this the third highest number reported for 2011, but this important index has jumped nearly 25 points in the past three months and now sits at its highest level since April. What’s more, this report followed the recent Consumer Sentiment Index reading, which also came in at its highest level in six months.

While consumers certainly appear more optimistic here, the news hasn’t been as positive out of Europe. The Euro struggled somewhat last week after just an okay performance from one of Italy’s Bond auctions. While the country sold all their debt at yields slightly lower than where they were just the day prior, yields are still historically high (near 7% on 10-Year Notes) for a country that has a lot of debt to service and refinance in the coming year. In addition, Spain’s government announced on Friday that the country’s budget deficit will surpass 8%. Spain also unveiled new austerity measures to combat their economic and budgetary difficulties.

So what does all of this mean for home loan rates here in the U.S. in 2012? The uncertainty in Europe should continue to help Bonds and home loan rates, as investors will see our Bonds as a safe haven for their money – and remember, home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, so rates typically improve as Mortgage Bonds improve. However, continued good economic reports here in the U.S. could balance out those improvements. That’s because investors will typically move their money out of Bonds and into Stocks during good economic times, so they can take advantage of gains.

The bottom line is that whatever lies ahead this year, 2012 begins with home loan rates near historic lows…which makes this a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

• Tuesday brings the Federal Open Market Committee Minutesfrom the Fed’s last meeting in 2011. The Markets will be especially interested to hear what the Fed may have said about inflation.
• The ISM Services Index will be reported on Thursday. This report gives investors a gauge as to how the service sector is holding up in this economy. Individuals employed in this sector produce services rather than products. Service sector jobs provide a significant number of jobs in the US – including housekeeping, messenger services, tax preparation, nursing, and teaching.
• Also on Thursday, we’ll see another weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. It is encouraging to see that Claims remain beneath the 400,000 mark, which is a sign that the labor market is improving.
• The biggest news of the week will be Friday’s Jobs Report, as the Labor Department reveals the latest unemployment figures and how many new jobs were created in December.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates remain near their historic best levels. I’ll be keeping a close eye on this as the year progresses.

Each new year is full of promise and potential. Perhaps that’s why so many of us choose this time of year to make positive changes in our lives.

And, believe it or not, achieving your goals can be easier than you think. The following 5 steps can help you get started and follow through!

1. Set realistic goals. The first step to your successful New Year’s resolutions is to set realistic goals for the coming weeks and months. You can start by focusing on the things you’re passionate about or the things you’ve always wanted to do. Maybe it’s a worthy cause you want to become involved in…or maybe you want to kick a habit that’s bothered you for years. If it’s something that you’re passionate about, you’ll have a better chance of being successful. Once you have the topic, make sure you write down a specific, attainable goal. It’s not enough to just think about doing something. Come up with a specific statement you want to achieve. For example, the most common resolution is to lose weight. But that’s not specific enough. Write down exactly how much weight you want to lose and by when. But make it realistic…and healthy at the same time.

2. Make a simple plan to achieve each goal. Once you have your goals written down, take the resolution a step further by figuring out how you’ll achieve it. That means breaking the goal down into simple steps that you can achieve over time. And, often, it means multiple little steps. So, for the weight loss resolution, you may write down a number of simple, daily or weekly steps – such as exercise 20 minutes three times a week, eat vegetables and fruit with each meal, switch to diet cola or better yet water during the day, and lose a certain number of pounds per month. Remember to consult a physician before starting any weight loss or exercise routine to make sure you’re approaching it in a healthy manner.

3. Announce your goals. One of the best ways to make sure you stick to your goals is to make them known to your friends, coworkers, and family members. The reality is, once you’ve told people you’ll do something, you’ll feel more accountability than if you just keep it to yourself. You’ll also have a cheering section to help you stay focused and positive as you work to achieve your goals. But don’t just share your goals; share the specific steps that you’re going to take each day or week to achieve those goals. If you use any social media websites to connect with friends and family, make your goals and steps part of your daily/weekly updates…it’s a great way to get the word out and hear feedback from people who want to help you stay on track.

4. Track and celebrate your progress. Small steps aren’t just about making your way to a goal; they’re also about building momentum, a positive attitude, and celebrating successes along the way. There are a number of ways to track and celebrate your success. For example, if your goal is to work out 20 minutes a day three times a week, you can use a marker and a calendar. Each day you work out, simply color that day in green (or another positive color that you like). As the month unfolds, you’ll see more and more green covering the calendar, which will help you see just how much work you’ve done and keep you motivated to keep going. In addition, you can also use social media to track and celebrate your success. Maybe you tweet or update your Facebook status every time you exercise. Or maybe you announce when you’ve lost a few pounds. The point is, you’ve already announced your goals to friends and family as a way to hold yourself accountable, now it’s time to celebrate with those same people every time you achieve a step along the way.

5. Don’t get discouraged. You’re bound to have good weeks and bad weeks. Just because you fall off track once or twice doesn’t mean you should give up. Instead, acknowledge that you had a bad day or week, figure out what happened to throw you off track (maybe it was a busy or stressful week), and then make a plan to overcome the problem if it happens again. For example, if you had a tough week at work that required you to work late and miss the trip to the gym, make a plan to be proactive the next time work gets busy. Perhaps you make a plan to walk during your lunch break or wake up early to do jumping jacks and push-ups before heading into the office. But…whatever you do…don’t give up on your goals or yourself. Review your plan and recommit yourself to those simple steps. You can even use social media to acknowledge a mistake and commit to overcoming that problem in the future. That way, you’ll have a new sense of accountability and support from your friends and family.

Best wishes to you in achieving all your goals and dreams this year. And if your New Year’s resolutions involve any financial or housing matters that I can help with, please call or email today. I’ll be happy to help out in any way that I can.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 02 – January 06

View: Want to give a gift that keeps on giving? Check out this great idea below.

Not only was last week’s Initial Jobless Claims reading of 366,000 the lowest level since May of 2008, there was a double dose of good news in the manufacturing sector, as both the Philadelphia Fed Index and the Empire State Index were both well above expectations. Normally, good economic news causes money to move out of Bonds and into Stocks as investors like to take advantage of gains…and this would typically hurt home loan rates, as they are tied to Mortgage Bonds.

However, the continued uncertainty out of Europe helped keep Bonds and home loan rates on an improving trend, as the US Dollar and US Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, which home loan rates are based on) are benefiting from safe haven buying. Ultimately, Europe needs to provide a large financial backstop for their banks and sovereign debt in order to fix their problems longer-term. Until this happens, uncertainty should benefit the US Dollar and US Bonds, and keep home loan rates relatively low.

One factor that we can’t ignore, though, is inflation. Despite the Fed stating again last week that inflation is moderating, core consumer level inflation has continued to inch higher every month. Also, last week’s Producer Price Index showed that inflation at the wholesale level was slightly higher in November. Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, because if inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher.

The bottom line is that while the uncertainty out of Europe should continue to help Bonds and home loan rates, both inflation and continued good economic reports here in the US could temper these improvements. With home loan rates still near historic lows, now remains a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

• Housing Starts and Building Permits (Tuesday), Existing Home Sales (Wednesday) and New Home Sales(Friday) for November will be reported.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claimswill be delivered on Thursday, and the Markets will be looking to see if the reading remains under 400,000.
• Also on Thursday, we’ll see the Consumer Sentiment Index for December as well as the final reading on Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product(GDP) for 2011. The second reading came in at 2%, down from the first reading of 2.5%.
• Finally, Friday the markets will see reports on Personal Income and Personal Spending along with the inflation indicator Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE). Durable Goods will also be reported.

In addition to those reports, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will announce downward revisions for Existing Home Sales over the past 5 years – and the revision is expected to be “meaningful.”

Finally, the Treasury Department will sell a whopping $99 Billion in 2-, 5- and 7-year Notes on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, uncertainty out of Europe continues to help Bonds and home loan rates, though they are facing resistance. I’ll be watching this closely as we head into the new year.

Network for Good has a fresh angle on gifting this holiday season: The Good Card^® - a gift card for charity – is perfect for everyone on your list. Good Cards have a stored value that can be redeemed as a donation to any of more than 1.2 million charities based in the US. Good Cards can be distributed via email or physical mail, or can be private labeled to meet your brand needs. Learn more at Network for Good.

A gift card for charity is an ideal reward for employees or thank you gift for customers and vendors that links their passion for a cause to your company’s brand. A new study by researchers from Harvard Business School, the University of British Columbia and the University of Liege that was recently highlighted in the Washington Post confirms that a bonus employees get to spend on others is more motivating than a bonus they get to spend on themselves. A Good Card recipient can redeem their gift card as a donation to any of more than a million nonprofits, an easy way for employees to share their personal rewards with others.

Good Card purchases, including fees, are tax-deductible to your company and are a creative way to spend funds earmarked for philanthropy. In addition, because Good Card purchases are charitable donations, they do not fall under the IRS gift limit or policies around corporate gifts with cash value. Network for Good’s charity gift card program is turn-key, customizable and easy to implement – even at the last minute. The program is recommended for any company looking to put a special spin on their gift-giving this year. What’s more, the person GIVING the gift (i.e., the card purchaser) gets the benefit of a tax advantage for charitable donations as well.

The Good Card is a creative and constructive way to honor partners and prospects, friends and neighbors during the holiday season and throughout the year. Visit Network for Good for more details.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 19 – December 23

View: Still have some holiday shopping to do? Check out these three great ideas.

Last Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims come in at 381,000. Not only was this lower than expectations, the number was a nine-month low, signaling that the labor market is slowly improving. Then on Friday, Consumer Sentiment reached a six-month high, rising above expectations to 67.7. These aren’t the only economic reports here in the US that have improved in recent weeks, which gives us reason for some optimism when it comes to our economy. But how the Eurodrama plays out may determine which way the fragile US economy goes next.

And it was a big week in Europe, with the European Central Bank (ECB) holding a policy meeting on Thursday and the two-day European Union Summit on Thursday and Friday. Before the Summit even began, rating firm Standard & Poor’s put 15 of the 17-nation Euro currency bloc on a downgrade review, citing “continuing disagreements among European policy makers on how to tackle” the Euro debt crisis.

So what were the results of the EU Summit? Leaders agreed to a new, tighter “fiscal integration” across the Eurozone. This means that a new treaty will be drafted, setting guidelines such as annual budget deficits being limited to three percent, and failure to meet guidelines like these would automatically spark disciplinary procedures. As expected, Germany was the winner in this negotiation as they demanded a tighter fiscal union in lieu of firing up the printing press and buying troubled sovereign debt.

So what does all of this mean for home loan rates here in the US? It’s important to remember that when our economy is struggling and economic reports are less favorable, our Bond Market usually benefits as investors seek a safe haven for their money. And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, our home loan rates are sometimes at their best when our economy is struggling. In a way it makes sense…in times of economic struggle, good home loan rates can help kick start our economy in other areas.

Though our economic reports have been improving of late, our Bond markets – and therefore home loan rates – have continued to benefit from the uncertainty in Europe, as investors have been staying put in the relative safe haven of US Bonds. That’s why now remains a great time to purchase or refinance a home, with home loan rates still near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

• The Retail Salesreport for November will give the markets some insight as to how the holiday shopping season is treating retailers when it is reported on Tuesday.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claimswill be delivered on Thursday and the markets will be looking to see if the number remains near last week’s nine-month low.
• Inflation will be reported on the wholesale level in the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which will be released on Thursday. That report will be followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. Inflation has remained relatively low in the past year and the Federal Reserve feels that it will remain stable in the longer-term.
• Manufacturing reports from the Empire State Index and the Philadelphia Fed Index will also garner attention when reported on Thursday.

In addition to those reports, the Fed will hold its FOMC meeting on Tuesday – and it’s the last meeting for 2011. No change is expected to the benchmark Fed Funds Rate.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates continued to benefit from the uncertainty out of Europe. I will be monitoring this story in the weeks ahead.

The Gift of Greenery. While freshly cut flowers make for a very nice host or hostess gift, potted plants can be even better. Every time the recipients look at their plant, they will most likely think of you.

The Gift of Relaxation. We all work hard. That’s why the gift of relaxation is so appreciated. And a prepaid massage is a great way to go. Beneficiaries of this gift can experience incredible relaxation, while also allowing their overworked muscles to receive a little TLC. Better still, this gift works for both men and women. And, it can fit into almost any budget – depending on whether you want to purchase a massage for a half hour or an hour.

Happy holidays to you and yours this season. And remember to give yourself a gift by spending time with the ones you love.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 12 – December 16

Forecast for the Week: The economic calendar is light, which means news out of Europe could make it a volatile week in our markets.

View: There’s a great holiday gift that doesn’t cost a dime. Check out the details below.

There was good news, as the headline number for job creations in November came in at 120,000, with 140,000 private jobs offsetting government losses. What’s more, some upward revisions to the two previous readings added 72,000 more jobs than had been reported.

Perhaps even more important, Hourly Earnings grew by just 0.1% – a number that suggests no threat of wage-based inflation. Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates because when inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher. So the Hourly Earnings number was good news for Bonds and home loan rates.

Catching the markets by surprise was a rather sharp decline in the unemployment rate to 8.6%, the lowest unemployment rate we’ve since March of 2009. While this is good news on the one hand, part of the decline stems from the fact that 315,000 people were removed from the workforce because they totally gave up looking for work. And with 13.3 million Americans still out of work, more improvement is certainly needed here.

Similarly, the labor participation rate (which is currently hovering at a 30-year low at 64) needs to move above 66 or it will be difficult for the economy to grow fast enough to lower our budget deficit. In fact, last week Bond ratings firm Fitch issued a stern warning to the US, saying that our AAA rating will be in jeopardy if we don’t soon do something to rein in our own ever-growing budget deficit.

It is good news that we’re seeing some slow and steady improvement in the labor market…and coupling this with other recent positive economic signals, means we are not near a recession at the moment. But our economic health remains fragile, and any external shock from Europe could easily disrupt the economic improvement we are seeing.

The bottom line is that the uncertainty out of Europe – and the prospect of additional Mortgage Bond buying (QE3) from the Fed – should continue to support Bonds and home loan rates as they will benefit from investors looking for a safe haven for their money. However, it is also unlikely that Bonds and home loan rates will improve much further. Inflation, while not yet a problem, is still elevated…and if it continues to creep higher, this will limit any improvement home loan rates may see. With home loan rates still near historic lows, now remains a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

• The ISM Services Index will be reported on Monday. This report gives investors a gauge as to how the service sector is holding up in this economy. Individuals employed in this sector produce services rather than products. Service sector jobs provide a significant number of jobs in the US – including housekeeping, messenger services, tax preparation, nursing and teaching.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered on Thursday. This week’s report comes after last week’s report showed that claims rose above the 400,000 level for the first time in four weeks.
• Consumer Sentiment will be delivered on Friday to cap off the week.

In addition to that news, here’s something to keep an eye on in the weeks ahead. Stocks may be set for another jump. That’s because of something that’s become known as the “Santa Claus Rally.” The Santa Claus Rally is usually a surge in Stocks in the week between Christmas and New Years.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates are being supported by rumors of QE3 and the continued certainty out of Europe. I will continue to watch these developments in the weeks ahead.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 02, 2011)

Time is a precious commodity, but it’s even more treasured because it is fleeting. As soon as a day, an hour, or even a minute passes, it is gone forever.

While that might be stating the obvious, it’s an important concept to reflect on during the often-hectic holiday season. So this holiday season – regardless of which holiday you celebrate or if you celebrate any – remember to focus on and spend time with the people around you, including family, friends, and even coworkers or clients.

When TV personality and kid expert Art Linkletter was asked about the idea of spending time with loved ones this is what he said:

“I once asked a five-year-old what he would take with him if he were going to Heaven. He replied, ‘I would take my parents because I think that up there they would have more time with me’… nuff said.”

The good news is, it’s actually possible to slow time down in a way that seems to lengthen special events like a day of fishing with your child or a special dinner with a good friend. The key is to consciously honor the person and the event as you experience it. To be in the moment.

In the days and weeks ahead, remember to recognize the people you care about. You don’t need to do or say anything specific, nor do you need to spend any money. You simply need to spend time with them. So consider setting aside two hours one day for coffee with a friend. Or if you have children, make special plans to take each one out individually for their own dinner. You can even set aside a short amount of time each day to call some of your special clients to see how they’re doing and personally wish them a happy holiday. And when you do, avoid distractions like technology or worries about what else you need to do that day.

After all, once the moment passes, you can go back to that checklist of things to do. But you can never go back to that moment in time.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 05 – December 09